LGDs are chemically identical to mined diamonds but cost a fraction of the price. As consumers—particularly Millennials and Gen Z—prioritize price and ethical transparency, the demand for natural stones has softened. Some analysts believe that by the time Botswana gains full control of 50% of its production, the global price for natural rough diamonds may have collapsed to a point where the increased volume cannot offset the lost value. Transparency and the "Middleman" Problem

Under the new terms, Botswana has clawed back a larger share of the supply. For the first five years, ODC will sell 30% of Debswana’s output. In the second half of the decade, that figure rises to 40%. Furthermore, the deal stipulates that by the final phase of the contract in 2035, ODC’s share will eventually reach 50%.

For now, Gaborone holds the cards. The question is whether De Beers is willing to pay the price to keep them.

Negotiations for a new deal have been ongoing for over a year, and they have turned ugly.

The signing of the sales deal in early 2025 did not end the debate. Instead, it became a stepping stone for a bolder, more existential play.

According to a 2023 report, under the expiring agreement, De Beers purchased 75% of Debswana’s output, leaving Botswana’s state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) with just 25% to sell independently. This meant De Beers controlled the flow, the pricing, and the strategic stockpiling of diamonds. As one analyst noted, the previous arrangement allowed De Beers to "park African diamonds firmly under the control of mismanaging multinationals".

If Botswana seizes a larger share of production to sell independently on the open market, they inherit the risk of market downturns. Without De Beers’ ability to stockpile diamonds during market slumps to stabilize prices, Botswana’s economy—which relies on diamonds for over 80% of export earnings—could become dangerously volatile.